the dollar vigilante blog

Debt Cut Deal is Just Smoke & Mirrors

That's it?  This is the deal?  This is what they've been supposedly fighting over for months?

We'll get to the exact details in a moment but let's start by doing a fantasy comparison of the same "cuts" being made in a format that the regular man on the street can understand.

Doctor: Uncle Sam, you've been drinking larger and larger amounts of alcohol every day since 1960.  1960 was the last year where you didn't drink.  You are going to die if you keep this up.

Uncle Sam: I don't want to die, Doc.  Tell me what I need to do.

Doctor: Well, from 1960-1975 you weren't too bad.  You drank 3 or 4 beers per day but it was under control.  You could have stopped if you wanted... you just didn't.  However, throughout the 80s it increased to about 5 or 6 per day and then by the 90s you were up to drinking 10 beers a day.

Uncle Sam: Yes, Doc, but remember 1999 and 2000?  I slowed to only 5 or 6 beers per day again.

Doctor: Yes, but that was just for 2 years.  Since then you've gotten completely out of control.  You've increased every year since and then, since 2008 to now you've gone from 30 to 40 beers per day.

Uncle Sam: Ok Doc.  It's time to get serious.  Here is what I'm going to do.  I am now drinking 40 beers per day but in 2013 I will only drink 39.6.  And in 2014 I will only drink 39.4 beers per day.  By 2021 I will be down to 38 beers per day.  Will that work?

Doctor: You're in denial.  And, you'll be lucky to make it to 2013 much less 2021.

And that is exactly what the US Government is proposing.  It hasn't had a government surplus since 1960 and the deficits have gone into the stratosphere since 2008.  Yet, all this debt deal purports to achieve is no cuts until 2013 and then some small cuts in 2013 and 2014, increasing to $112 billion of cuts from a $4 trillion+ budget by 2021!  In other words, not even a drop in the bucket.

The total amount of cuts they say they will achieve by 2021 is $2.1 trillion - or, if averaged, $210 billion per year out of a budget that in 2011 was $3.82 trillion - or a 5.49% cut. 

But here is the real kicker.  They say they can't cut much in 2012 and 2013 because the economy is too weak.  Well, they ain't seen nothing yet.  By 2012 and 2013 we will be well into the Greater Depression at which time they will say they cannot even make these meager cuts.

In other words, even if they do follow through with this, it is a drop in the bucket.  And chances are they won't even follow through with it.

All this deal does is give us even more proof that the US Government is on the fast track to collapse - either by debt default or hyperinflation... and all of our plans and strategies for this inevitability look even more critical.

This evening we are releasing the August issue of TDV where we talk much more in depth about the coming collapse and strategies and info for how best to survive the coming storm.  Subscribe today to become a part of our community of dollar crash survivors.

Comments (6)

Laurence Hunt's picture

Jeff,You persuaded me with the analogy, and I thought this topic had been over-covered already. Well-done again, with a nice twist on an oft-visited theme.

Get Your Facts Straight's picture

Jeff, get your facts straight. US Economy grew for 5+ years thru Clinton's 2nd term. They actually handed over a surplus to Bush who of course blew it all away.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Debt-Deal-Puts-US-on-bloomberg-1196900590...."Deficit to SurplusThe U.S. economy grew at an average 4 percent per year from 1994 to 2000 as the federal government

Mack's picture

It is a myth that Clinton handed Bush a surplus. If you bother to look, you will notice that each fiscal year that Clinton was in office the national debt actually went up. Clinton did this by offsetting the public debt with intragovernmental holdings. Basically, social security was taking in much more than it was paying out and the difference was used to pay down the public debt. Unfortunately, this is still just debt and the national debt increased every year. Don't believe everything they tell you, because most of the time it is not true. Also, Clinton benefitted greatly from the Nasdaq bubble, which brought in enormous revenue from capital gains taxes. This bubble was already beginning to burst when Bush got in office. So, actually, Clinton handed Bush a recession.

Rien's picture

Actually, according to Denninger its more like: I am now drinking 40 beers/day and I was planning to go to 44 beers/day, but I will only go to 41 beers/day so that is better en will solve my problem?

Jeff Berwick's picture

Thanks for fielding that comment Mack! You are correct. As for "Get Your Facts Straight", he would have been more correct to say, "Get your propaganda straight"! Poor guy is just a brainwashed sheeple who repeats what they tell him on MSNBC and thinks its fact

Sailormac's picture

People : I have been reading this "SKY is falling " rhetoric for the last 30 years. The currancy has still not collapsed. What has happend is: Due to the unregulated financial sheanigans of the last 10 years , the US has bankrupted themselves. Oh, and just like Great Britain blew their financial brains out in the 20th century fighting 2 world wars; so too is the US today bleeding itself white with 3 , count 'em ,3 wars. What the US financial industry desperately needs is more effective regulation and oversight. But, like a drunk facing the horrors of sobriety, they are finding evey excuse in the book to avoid having to -get sober

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