[The following post is by TDV Contributor, Wendy McElroy]
Last December, a CBC News headline announced, “Cuba, US to restore diplomatic relations after 50-year rift.” Why now? The answer in one word: Venezuela.
HUGO AND FIDEL, THE FRICK AND FRACK OF COMMUNISM
Venezuela is at the tipping point of a massive collapse. Grocery shelves are bare, with military personnel stationed at stores. Photographing the empty shelves is now a criminal offense. Even in the cities, it is impossible to find diapers, milk and other necessities for children. Average people will withstand state-created deprivations but they will not watch babies and children suffer.
That is the stuff of revolution, and Venezuela is already an extremely violent nation. A January 2014 headline in The Guardian stated, “24,000 murders last year confirm Venezuela as one of the world's most dangerous countries” (The population in 2013 was approximately 3.5 million)
The official inflation rate is 65%; this means inflation is far higher, of course. On January 13, Forbes reported, “On Tuesday…the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Venezula to Caa3, one step above default.” The economic situation will only worsen for oil-rich Venezuela if oil prices continue to decline.
The Cuban “why now?” aspect of Venezuela's woes is due to the close economic relationship the two nations enjoyed for decades. It flourished because of the warm regard in which the two revolutionary leaders Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro held each other. Chávez called Castro a “mentor.”
In 1999 visit, Chávez declared, “Here we are, as alert as ever, Fidel and Hugo, fighting with dignity and courage to defend the interests of our people, and to bring alive the idea of Bolívar and Martí. In the name of Cuba and Venezuela, I appeal for the unity of our two peoples, and of the revolutions that we both lead.”
In 2000, they entered into the Convenio Integral de Cooperación through which they traded 'goods' that cost the producing nation comparatively little but were desperately needed by the recipient. Cuba benefited tremendously from the flood of oil it received, much of it subsidized by Venezuela. Chávez also invested heavily in the development of the Cuban Cienfuegos oil refinery in order to spur on the island's oil industry.
In turn, Cuba sent tens of thousands of technical experts to Venezuela, including desperately needed medical personal. In April 2005, a series of other agreements drew the nations close together with Cuba agreeing to increase its health care personnel in Venezuela to 30,000, establish about 1,000 free medical facilities and provide medical instruction to approximately 40,000 Venezuelans. On its own soil, Cuba also provided medical care for an estimated 100,000 Venezuelans, especially in the area of eye care.
Chávez was a godsend for Cuba.
A RIPPLE EFFECT OF THE SOVIET COLLAPSE
After a long-fought revolution that ended in 1959, the new socialist Republic of Cuba was embargoed by America for more than 50 years; the embargo continues since lifting it requires the cooperation of an uncooperative Congress. Cuba was also befriended by the Soviet Union in a somewhat distant manner. The friendship warmed with two events. First, in the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, America and the Soviet Union squared off against each other for 13 Cold War days.
The Soviets were deploying ballistic missiles to Cuba; the US took this move as an open threat. Cuba was blockaded to prevent the deployment. After teetering toward nuclear war, the Soviets backed down and America dismantled some of its own missiles to appease Soviet demands. The crisis drew the Soviet Union and Cuba closer but they were still separated by Castro's outreach to communist China toward which the Soviets were now cool.
Then, the Prague Spring occurred in January 1968. Soviet-dominated Czechoslovakia threw off many of the repressive measures it had endured since World War II and began to adopt liberal reforms. In August, the Soviets invaded to reclaim control. Although Warsaw Pact nations joined in, many Soviet allies were openly critical of tanks rolling down the streets of Prague. Castro was an exception. In a radio broadcast, he unequivocally supported the Soviets and denounced the Czech rebels as “fascist reactionary rabble.” The gesture of support was repaid by increased loans and a quick bump up of Soviet oil to Cuba.
Cuba's economic dependence upon the Soviet Union continued smoothly enough until the latter began to crumble in the late 1980s. By December 1991, the Soviet Union had ceased to exist. Along with it went the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance upon which Cuba was dependent. This economic organization consisted of Eastern Bloc nations along with various other socialist ones, including Cuba. The island entered what was called the Special Period in Time of Peace. This was a bitter depression that began in 1989 and lasted through the 1990s. A scarcity of oil and gas were largely responsible for the deep economic suffering of Cubans.
ENTER HUGO
By the mid-2000s, Venezuela was exporting approximately 115,000 barrels of crude oil a day to Cuba, and Fidel re-exported a portion of it to other nations in order to pocket some hard currency.
Exit Chávez upon his death in March 2013. The Guardian wondered how long Cuba could expect its “daily subsidy of 100,000 barrels of free Venezuelan crude?” The International Political Review (March 09, 2013) expanded, “With Cuba consuming 120,000 barrels of oil a day, but domestically producing only 80,000, Cuba’s position looks precarious after their great ally’s death. The potential repercussions of Chávez’s death could mean that his successor does not wish to subsidize Cuba in oil anymore. With the US trade embargo still in place, Cuba would be hardpressed to find substitute streams of oil for its internal consumption, as not only does the island nation lack allies with the ability to provide oil to them, it also lacks cash to pay for it.” The situation grows ever worse for Cuba as Venezuela careens around the edge of an economic cliff and, perhaps, a revolutionary one.
Fortunately, Raúl Castro – Fidel's younger brother and political head of Cuba — did not wait to take his chances with Chávez's hand-picked but unstable successor, President Nicolás Maduro. Last week, the statistics-driven news site FiveThirtyEight (Jan. 16, 2015) ran an article entitled “Cuba is Hoping to Replace Venezuelan Oil With American Tourists.” Secret negotiations between the US and Cuba began almost immediately after Chávez dropped. Cuba's two main money-makers are tourism and remittances from abroad. FiveThirtyEight commented, “Only a dramatic opening to the US could prevent a full-scale social and political crisis that could imperil the government’s stability. Raul Castro is a calculating politician, and detente with the US is a move calculated to help his regime survive.”
It is no coincidence that President Obama's first official and conciliatory move toward Cuba is to loosen travel restrictions as well as trade. Americans can travel to the island on government business, for journalism as well as for family, educational, cultural, and religious reasons without requiring permission first. Travel to Cuba formerly required a license from the Treasury Department's Office (DOT) of Foreign Assets Control.
Americans used to sidestep the license requirement by booking flights from Canada. For the foreseeable future, it appears as though they will still need to do so. Although US travel agents and airlines are allowed to book Cuba-bound Americans, the only current option is for such passengers to debark on foreign soil, such as Canada or Mexico, and make connections to Havana from there. Apparently, a better policy has to be worked out with the DOT before direct flights become legal.
WHAT'S IN IT FOR OBAMA?
On the positive side, there is a prisoner exchange. Obama announced the return of Alan Gross, held for 5 years in Cuba as a bargaining chip, and a “CIA asset” Rolando Sarraf Trujillo, held for 20 years. Additionally, Cuba agreed to release 53 political prisoners. Cuba will also receive prisoners in America whom it has sought for many years. By contrast with Obama, however, Raúl remains silent on the swap.
On the politically negative side, Obama has deeply alienated the Cuba Lobby; that is the relatively small but passionate group of Cuban-Americans who detest the Castros and Cuba's communist rule. One of its powerful spokesman, Florida Republican Marco Rubio swiftly decried the detente. He claimed Obama was acting like a pawn for the Castros “providing the economic lift that the Castro regime needs to become permanent fixtures in Cuba for generations to come.” Perhaps Obama believes the boost in Latino support that came from his immigration policies will offset alienating the Cuba Lobby. Perhaps he is looking to legacy. With a series of flubs, like being AWOL from the Charlie Hedbo march in Paris, perhaps he is scrambing for a foreign policy 'win'.
It is difficult for me to become optimistic or upset about one state recognizing another. Critics may be correct in stating that Cuba is the big winner in these negotiations. Perhaps the Castros have acquired a new lease or two on life. There is reason, however, to believe that freer trade and greater prosperity for the average Cuban will weaken and not strengthen the hold of communism on the island. It is called the “revolution of increased expectations” by which people who have reason to hope for a better future also demand more liberty with which to enjoy it. Despair and poverty favor totalitarianism. Hope and a full stomach favor freedom.
And I am pleased that families who have not seen each other for decades may be able to fold their arms around each other at long, long last.
